Really like this match up despite the Sox having a few injuries with Ellsbury and Cameron. Ellsbury is electric, but has struggled with an average under .200 vs. Shields any way so the injury is a bit over rated. meanwhile the Rays are just 16-53 in their last 69 trips to Boston. It's been even worse for Shields who went 0-3 in 2009 with a 6.84 ERA in Boston. In 2008 it got worse for the right handed pitcher with a 23.5 ERA in 2 games started in Boston. Boston has been able to eat up RH pitching at home and they are 39-15 in their last 54 home vs. RH starter.
Shields was not as good on the road or at night as he was at home or during day starts. He had a 4.62 ERA on the road and a 4.61 ERA at night. He'll likely struggle and that gets turned over to a Tampa bullpen with a 6.28 ERA. This game could get ugly.
Bucholz on the other hand is 3-1 vs. TB in his career with a 2.41 ERA. TB just .237 avg off the righty. He's backed by a bullpen that has a 4.60 ERA and improving quickly. The Red Sox are 10-2 in his last 12 starts and he's quickly turning into a valuable part of this rotation which is the best in MLB. Tampa is 3-13 in their last 16 as a dog and 6-21 in their last 27 as a dog on the road. I like the run line because of the pitching match up!
