I like Houston in this matchup despite losing their head coach. Houston has named Todd Orlando their new coach and he was previously the defensive coordinator. Thatâs good news considering Houston was a defensive team led by their 5 star defensive lineman Ed Oliver. This game should be the most interesting on Saturday, and I really like Houston to win this by double digits.
First of all San Diego State was held under 200 yards rushing this year 4 times and went 1-3. Donnel Pumphrey has a ton of pressure to break Ron Dayneâs rushing record and I donât see him doing it against Houstonâs run defense. Houston has allowed just one opponent over 200 yards rushing all year and that was Navy who runs the triple option. Houston does not have to worry about a passing game as San Diego State is entirely one dimensional. Looking back further since Donnel Pumphrey arrived back in 2013, San Diego State has gone 7-17 when rushing for fewer than 200 yards.
Houston has also had a much tougher schedule with Louisville and Oklahoma in non-conference play two teams they beat easily. I see them being up for this game with their new coach already focused and without the interim tag. San Diego State is a nice team, but the Mountain West was down this year and this team just doesnât do well out of conference play going 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 tries. Meanwhile Houston has gone 16-5 ATS in their last 21. If Houston does not cover itâs because they turn the ball over, but I expect Greg Ward Jr. in his final game to put up some big numbers. After all San Diego State has allowed a ton of points of late, 40.33 over their last 3 per game.
