I like the Golden Eagles in this one, it really reminds me of the Tulsa pick from last week where we had them +4 going on the road against New Mexico coming away with an easy win. We have Southern Miss who are in Todd Monkens third year with 15 returning starters including the QB and all 5 offensive lineman. This team has some solid transfers from Big 12 teams on defense and it has already shown to improve the defense and I really think that could be the difference.
Texas State also has a high flying offense so far, but they played much worse vs. a power 5 conference against Florida State they were -300+ yards, while Southern Miss held their own only -29 yards against Miss State. Southern Miss is a program with a winning pedigree, 19 straight winning seasons before the last 3 years, and now this is a key game in determining whether they get back to a bowl game. Texas State has not been in the FBS very long and they beat Southern Miss 2 years ago on the road with a lot of help. They were -200 yards in that game, but were lucky enough to have 6 turnovers. I expect a different outcome here on Saturday.
I canât help but play this game here as the match up and situation really favors Old Dominion. First of all they have already sold out their 20,000 seat stadium as they host a power 5 conference team for the first time and itâs NC State who had 9 wins a year ago. NC State has one of the easiest schedules this year so I feel like most people just are not up to date with where this team is and thatâs giving us plenty of value to play this game at this number. Old Dominion lost on the road by 12 last year, but played right with NC State until giving up two 4th quarter TDâs that changes the game.
This is a different season for Old Dominion they lost their talented QB, and top WR, but return all 5 along the offensive line along with their talented RB Ray Lawry who is leading the nation in rushing. This team was able to run on the road last year against NC State as Lawry had 3 rushing TDâs and we have already seen some red flags with NC State early allowing Troy one of the worst teams in the country to average nearly 5 yards per carry in week 1 and were only +145 yards at home. NC State has issues in the trenches that wonât allow them to dominate against a team that does not get nearly the top tier recruits as they do. Iâm expecting a big day from Lawry as this offense is now running it 50 times a game as opposed to 30 last year. Bobby Wilder is a very good head coach and seems to get the best out of his players so Iâll take the points especially since this team has started 0-2 ATS, we are certainly catching a bit of line value.
