I really wanted to take Virginia here Friday night, but itâs very hard to do so when they havenât proved they can win the big games under Mike London. The talent is there, but still he always seems to get less from his players. I canât justify backing Boise State here either as they lost their QB Ryan Finley and will start 2 guys at QB that just took their first snaps last week. I think Rypien is the guy, but going on the road could be a major challenge with the talent on Virginiaâs defense especially in the secondary although they have a ton to prove in that department.
The under is a good play here as Boise State has been dominating in the front 7 stopping the run, and Virginia really relies on the run and their talented RB Taquan Mizzell who lead the team in receiving yards as well. He averages less than 4 yards per carry and the fact that he leads this team in receiving just goes to show you how Virginia has not trust in the QB and the talent at receiver. I expect both teams to lean on the running game tonight and the game is a toss up, but both defenses will dominate the game.
Virginia despite what it looks like on the stat sheet had some success against Notre Dame and that game really gave them a lot of confidence. They held Notre Dame to 0-10 on third downs and have held opponents to 41.67 TD% in the red zone while Boise went 1-12 on third down at BYU and has held opponents to 33.3% in the red zone. Both teams will be happy to settle for field goals here and I think the under is a great play with great value here.
