About South Alabama â A lot of players came over from UAB when they decided to end their program so there are still a lot of question marks about how good they can be this year. The hype is on their defense they just won on the road against Troy as a TD under dog holding the to 18 points, but Troy has struggled offensively all year. Troy only averaging 20.6 points to begin with and has struggled with an offensive identity starting the year with an up-tempo offense and then dialing back the pace when they realized they couldnât run it. That was a pretty significant win for South Alabama according to their head coach - It was a festive atmosphere at Troy's Veterans Memorial Stadium in the first "Battle for the Belt." Jones said it was everything an in-state, in-conference rivalry should be. Iâm not saying this team canât get up after a big game, but itâs much more difficult as they take some time off and have the most consistent Sun Belt team coming in. So far South Alabama has been very content with their performance and I like Arkansas Stateâs chances. Defensively South Alabama ranks near the bottom in adjusted statistics, 114th overall, 107 vs. the run, 97 vs. the pass and itâs a bad sign with Fredi Knighten returning for this game.
Arkansas State has been playing without their best player Fredi Knighten who returns for this game. Knighten suffered an injury in their game against Missouri in a 27-20 loss. Knighten is probably the best QB in the Sun Belt accounted for 35 total TDâs a year ago and is a real dual threat running and passing the ball in this offense. This is a huge boost for this offense along with Michael Gordon at RB who should benefit greatly who is already averaging 6.50 yards per carry. Knighten was outstanding in conference play with nearly 8 yards per pass attempt with 16 TDâs to 6 interceptions while completing 62.3% of his passes. Heâs got his running game, and receiving weapons back this year and 3 of the 5 on along the offensive line. Defensively this team is very very strong up front and returns mostly their entire defensive line that was ranked 25th in adjusted sack rate. The biggest key is getting off the field on third down.
Arkansas State has done a decent job getting off the field allowing 37.84% on third down conversions following 35% a year ago in conference play. Offensively the Red Wolves have improved compared with last year at just under 40%, but Knighten and this running game definitely better than last year will be a handful for South Alabama which allows 42% on third down while converting at just 34.67%.
In the red zone, this is where this game changes, because the Jaguars really struggle without a lot of options down here they are only converting 35% of their opportunities into TDâs. Defensively they have been even worse allowing 16 TDâs in 18 attempts for 88.89%. Arkansas State has had a lot more success 67% TDâs in the red zone on offense while their defense comes in at 70% which I expect them to improve throughout the season.
Turnovers have killed Arkansas State and probably giving us some value in this line. They can not turn the ball over and have 12 turnovers in their 3 road games. The good news is they are playing a beatable defense and can do whatever they want in the running game so I donât expect turnovers to be an issue and South Alabama also has had the same issues of turning the ball over. I also give the special teams edge to Arkansas State who clearly have the better punter and return game while South Alabamaâs kicker may keep them in the game I think South Alabama will be scoring 3 points while Arkansas State is scoring 7.
