Tigers -128 (2.5* Early Bird Special)
Rangers caught a very tough break with Hamilton trying to tag up from third on a pop up to third.  He’s out 6-8 weeks and that has to have Texas in a bad mood now with another day game vs. the Tigers.  They’ll send Dave Bush out there not part of their rotation but a double header over the weekend vs. Baltimore will force them to handle it this way.  Bush can be effective but not dominant and is coming off a 5.14 ERA in 5 spring games.  He has a 5.19 ERA in his last 3 years for April and that just won’t be enough here today.  He’s had trouble with Miguel Cabrera who is 3-8 with 2 HR and a double.  Rangers are just 3-13 in their last 16 games in Detroit and Detroit as I mentioned yesterday were one of the top day squads offensively last year averaging nearly 5 runs a game.  They look to be up to the same old tricks after beating the Rangers 5-4 on a walk off.  Scherzer who struggled at Yankee Stadium to open the season and bounced back at home vs. the Royals will start today.  I like his chances he’s 9-4 with a  2.90 ERA lifetime at home and vs. the Rangers he’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA.  Not having to face Hamilton will surely make his life a bit easier.  Scherzer also was more effective during day starts last year posting a 2.89 ERA.  Tigers are 25-16 in their last 51 as a home favorite and I think they’ll take this game.
 
Twins -173 (3.5* Early Bird #2)
Can’t help but take advantage of this line.  Liriano at home vs. Royals last year was a -280 and now at 100+ points lower we see value even at -173.  Liriano is off to a rough start and that’s the reason why but two starts on the road and at Toronto and New York are very difficult circumstances.  He comes back home where he had a 3.11 ERA during 16 starts last year and a 3.05 ERA during day starts.  I think he rebounds and he’ll get some support for the bats who seemed to wake up a little bit last night with 13 hits including 4 from Michael Cuddyer who is 5-17 off Kyle Davies. Davies really struggles vs. the Twins in his last three outings he’s given up 17 earned runs over just 15.2 IP.  In 2010 he started twice and allowed 24 base runners in 10 innings pitched.  Mauer is 10-24 and Kubel is 10-22.  Others including Thome and Young are a combined 9-28 with 2 HR.  I think this could really get the Twins on a roll as they get into the Royals bullpen early which has not been great as of late, 5.82 ERA in the last 5 games.  Royals also don’t hit as well vs. lefties, Liriano was 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA vs. them a year ago.

Where to find Freddy?