I love these type of situations. USC has a great situational play without Sarkisan. I think the level of concentration with this team will increase dramatically. I think the Trojans will rebound nicely as they tend to rebound well after a loss. The perception is this team has given up, but I just donât see it there is too much talent, and the extra preparation time and motivation from these coaches to prove themselves are all reasons to love USC. Not to mention teams following a game against Navy tend to not cover the spread. Itâs a tough game to bounce back after with the way Navy blocks. Iâll give you one great example â Ohio State played Navy to open the season and lost the next week hosting Virginia Tech. Notre Dame themselves are 2-5 in games played the week after Navy. Last year they lost by 22 as a 3 point dog after Navy, and in previous years they lost to Pitt as a 4.5 point favorite, beat Purdue but only by 3 as a 14 point favorite, beat Wake Forest by 7 but as a 13.5 point favorite, lost to Tulsa as a 9.5 point favorite in 2010, lost at Pitt by 5 as a 5.5 point underdog so they covered that spread by a ½ point. In 2008 they lost to Syracuse following Navy as a 19.5 point underdog. In 2007 they lost to Air Force following Navy by 18 points. In fact they are just 1-9 ATS the last 10 seasons following the Navy match up.
I like the Gators in this spot even without Grier in their at QB , as they have a capable QB in Treon Harris who has looked better at times than Grier. Harris should be used the right way by this coaching staff that I have a lot of faith in. McElwain took Garrett Grayson and improved his abilities sending him into the NFL from Colorado State which reminds me of what Urban Meyer did when he coached in the lower tier programs. He gets the best out of his players, Greg McElroy, and A.J. McCarron come to mind. Two other guys who had no business going to the NFL, but were drafted for what they did with McElwain helping them.
For Florida this is a revenge game and Iâm giving them a shot to win. First of all they lost by 3 last year with terrible QB play and 3 turnovers which is quite the accomplishment. LSUâs defense this year also not as dominating as I think we all figured it would be as they have given up 20+ points to every opponent except Miss State (19). Florida can win if they get to 20 or at least cover this spread. LSUâs defense ranks 63rd in the front 7 in havoc rate compared to Floridaâs 15th ranked and 6th overall when you add in their secondary.
At the end of the day Florida can take more chances against this running game than most people because of the secondary they have. I see Fournette getting his yards, but when they get into the red zone itâs going to be awfully difficult to score. Meanwhile I think Floridaâs offense has a few things that LSU will be caught off guard by with Harris and I think as long as they donât get killed in the TO margin department they should have a chance to win late. Florida just 5 turnovers lost on the year and +8 overall.
