The value here is on the Rajin Cajuns in this one getting 8.5 points, and I just do not see a ton of distance between these two teams. Lafayette has to travel, but it's not a short week for them as they haven't played since the 10th and have an extra 3 days of preparation.
Both teams rely on running the ball to win games, and the Rajin Cajuns have the better running game behind Elijah Mcguire who is very under rated and went for nearly 300 yards in last year's match up. I really like their offensive line that ranks 11th in the country in sack %, and 22nd in rushing yards per carry. I think they hold a huge edge in that department and it's a big key to winning success on the road. Arkansas State's offensive line is ranked 88th in yards per carry and 110th in protecting their QB.
Of course Arkansas State's defense also looks better to this point, rushing defense especially, but looking at the adjusted run defensive numbers Arkansas State can't stop the run either ranking 90th. They gave up 172 yards on only 29 carries to Idaho who was ranked 102nd in rushing offense, they also gave up 179 to an FCS team. True, they held Missouri intact, but the Tigers have been dreadful on offense this year against everyone and rank 115th in rushing offense.
Lafayette's defense has struggled, but they are better in the red zone at least and Arkansas State really lacks the explosive play that will get them up big in this game in my opinion. Arkansas State ranks 116th in explosiveness and 123rd in passing down success (2nd and 8 or longer , 3rd and 5 or longer). Lafayette ranks 55th, and I really like what we have seen here from Jalen Nixon who is taking better care of the ball and is also a rushing threat. Arkansas State got their guy back and we were lucky to cover the spread behind Fredi Knighten in last Tuesday's game their win 49-31 over South Alabama was very misleading and I think we could see an upset here tonight.
