Both teams come off losses last week, but Ole Miss flat out lost to Memphis while A&M really beat themselves with 3 pick sixes which really inflated the final score thus creating some value with the line this week. A&M actually had 15 tackles for loss against Alabama last week, and had 4 total turnovers compared with Ole Miss who beat Alabama on the road by forcing 5 turnovers. Funny A&M still better TO margin in conference play.
This is a good match up vs. A&M, because their weakness is in run defense and Ole Miss is really struggling to run the ball this year and only averaging 2.96 yards per carry in conference play. A&M strength on offense is passing the ball, and Ole Miss weakness on defense is in pass defense, and they are just 70th in adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile Ole Miss offensive strength is in their passing game, but the strength of A&M is their pass defense, and they are ranked #1 in in adjusted sack rate and passing down sack rate. Ole Miss does get their best offensive lineman back for this game in Laremy Tunsil, but he has not played in a while and this is a hell of a game to return at LT. I actually think he could hurt them in this game with holding penalties.
I think Kyle Allen rebounds, and I think he actually has the better supporting cast with Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, and Ricky Seals-Jones. Tra Carson out of the backfield is also a weapon, but in a close game itâs match ups and A&M has been very good against the pass and in the red zone allowing just 41% TD%. Take out the 4 turnovers against Alabama and the Aggies have just 6 turnovers. I expect a very close game and Ole Miss actually is more turnover prone so I like the 5.5 points.
