Dollar General Bowl will be played in Mobile Alabama. Small edge to Troy, but thatâs incorporated in the spread for this game. I actually feel confident in the under in this game. Both teams are led by their defense and are top 30 in yards per play allowed. Ohio has faced slightly stronger offenses than Troy on the year, but overall I would say both defenses are excellent and they are both going up against offenses that donât have big play capability. Troy 75th in big play offense while Ohio is 103rd. Both defenses will create third and longs and are very strong in the red zone.
Troyâs run defense allowing just 3.44 ypc, while Ohio run defense allowing 2.96 ypc. Troy has a net of 28 tackles for loss and +20 sacks while Ohio has +19 tackles for loss and +26 sacks. Both defenses holding opponents under their season average in yards, Ohio ranking 42nd, and Troy 47th. Ohio did not play a lot of strong defenses this year and hwen they did they averaged 15.5 points. Meanwhile Troy who faced 4 top 30 defenses averaged 21.5. I give the coaching edge to Frank Solich who has been around a long time and usually plays his best games as a dog. Ohioâs defense held Tennessee and Western Michigan to some of their season lows in points. They are a bend but not break defense allowing just 45% touch down rate.
The under is 35-16-2 in Ohioâs last 53 games overall and the under is 6-2-1 in Troyâs last 9 games overall. Now these two conferences traditionally play high scoring games, but I think we are getting some value on the total because of it. Troy also played at Ladd-Peebles Stadium already this season against South Alabama a defense ranked 71st in yards per play allowed. They ended up scoring 28 points, but had only 13 points entering the 4th quarter. Ohio seems to have a weakness against the pass, but they also seem to step up against the high quality opponents like Western Mich, Tennessess, Miami Ohio, and Toledo keeping all 4 of those teams below their season average for points (average of 10points below) and they played well enough defensively against the pass to be in each of those games. Iâll predict a final score of 24-17.
