Cardinals and Reds do not like each other that is one thing that's obvious last time they faced off the Reds swept the Cards at home and the series ended with Pujols on the DL after getting hit with a pitch. Benches have cleared in this series and it is obvious that these teams don't like each other. Carpenter struggled in his last start vs. the Reds, but over his previous 9 starts he was 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA. Pitching at home will help him in this one and he's been great of late going 16 innings giving up just 14 base runners and 2 ER. He is 20-6 during home starts from 2008-2010 and will look to continue to pitch great in July something the opposing pitcher can not state. Carpenter from 08-2010 has a 2.70 ERA in July starts while Cueto's worst month is July posting a 5.34 ERA in his career in July with a 4-6 record over 16 starts.
More on Cueto he has a 1.84 ERA, but he's been extremely lucky with a .211 batting average with balls in play which is well below his career average and I expect that to start coming back towards the mean. Why wouldn't it happen today? The Cardinals have a 139 AB a .331 average and .975 OPS vs. Cueto. Cueto has been better as of late vs. the Cards, but I think it will only take a run or two for the Cardinals to win this one as i expect Carpenter to be dominant in this one ast he Reds have 224 AB with just a .215 average and .619 OPS vs. Carp. Reds have lost 9 of 15 and 8 of those games they only managed 3 runs or less. Cardinals are 14-2 in Carps last 16 Monday starts, and 47-16 in his last 63 game 1 starts while the Reds have really struggled in St Louis going 18-43 in their last 61. They are also 2-7 when Cueto is on 5 days rest and 10-24 in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
