I love Holland in this situation his trending ERA is more than a run lower than his actual meaning it should start to see some decrease. He's been great vs. Oakland over his last 3 starts he has a 1.50 ERA and Oakland is 25th with a .678 OPS vs. LHP and is 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. LH starters and 15-38 in their last 53 as a road dog. As are hitting just .218 vs. LHP over last 10 games and scoring just 2.59 runs per 9 over that period overall while the Rangers are at 7.22. Rangers bats got extremely hot in their last series which could mean a surge by this club in the AL West. They hit .414 and Harden is going to have a tough time getting them out because he's primarily a strike out pitcher! Rangers have just 507 K's on the season nobody strikes out less and Harden has 10 starts in Texas over the past 3 years either with the A's or the Rangers and he posts a 4.99 ERA but even worse a 1.81 WHIP. Texas is #3 with a .776 OPS vs. RHP and hit even better at home. Look for Holland to start catching some breaks against an A's team that is 29th in home runs. I think Holland bounces back and pitches well and the Rangers beat up on their old pitcher.
Love the Twinkies today Pavano is getting a bad wrap and we will back him he's got a 3.49 ERA at night and goes late into games which means you keep the Twins awful bullpen out of games. Humber has the 2.53 ERA at home but he's been lucky and I still see him coming back to earth as a .219 BABIP just is not realistic to keep up. Take out Pavano's poor start in Milwaukee where they have just played off the charts and he has a 1.99 ERA over his last 5 starts. HIs overall 5.34 ERA on the road is also deceiving in his last 4 road starts he has 1.74 ERA going deep into games. It's not like the White Sox are hitting anyone hard they are scoring just 2.23 runs per game in their last 5 while the Twins are 5.60 and continue to play well 13-5 in their last 18 as a dog +110 to +150. They are also 11-1 last 12 vs. losing team and 35-16 in their last 51 meetings with the Sox so expect some confidence.
