Lackey says his arm feels good and with a couple of extra days with the All Star break I do believe him. Last night it was a rare loss for the Sox but they still put up 6 runs. Boston is flat out dominant during day games for whatever reason and we have said this before. They are scoring more than 2 runs per game during day games than the Rays 6.48 vs. 4.34 and are the #1 team by far wtih a .875 OPS during day games. Now they face Shields who has been dominant in his own right and in his last start vs. the Red Sox he pitched a complete game shut out at home. That should be the Sox motivation. Gonzalez, Ortiz and Pedroia have ridiculous numbers vs. the righty who is playing above his actual talent and I believe that will start to come back to earth. Shields is also receiving the least amount of run support at home of any other team with just 1.92 runs per game. Look for that to continue today Lackey is 11-4 with a 3.75 ERA in 16 starts vs. the Rays. Back to Shields bc he is the main reason this is our POD today with a lot of value. Take out his last complete game start and he's 3-6 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his previous 9 starts vs. the Sox. In the last 10 games the Sox are hitting .302 scoring 7.07 runs per 9 and have a 2.11 ERA out of the pen. Tampa just .257/4.97/4.07. Rays really are not on the same level as the Sox vs. RHP as they are ranked 18th with a .713 OPS and the Sox #1 .816 ops. Rays at home just a .227 average and 3.34 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Red Sox on the road .261 5.46 runs per game. Look for the Red Sox to improve to 22-8 during day games.
Little odd to see this line, but when Felix pitches he deserves to be respected. But the Mariners offense does not. They are 30th with a .609 OPS vs. Lefties this year and are 6-23 in their last 29 home games vs. LHP 14-37 last 51 overall. Rangers offense is just hot right now 10-1 in their last 11 vs. RH starter and in their last 10 games they are hitting .305 6.65 runs per 9 vs. RHP while the Mariners just .174 2.05 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Felix is 2-4 in his last 6 starts vs. the Rangers.
Really like this play Niese and Hamels will both be solid lefties in this division for many years. Hamels has been great this year 2.20 ERA on the road and an ERA under 2 during day starts. Niese faces a Phillies line up that is depleted and struggles big time vs. LHP they are towards the bottom of the league in OPS .658. So if they are not hitting for power they have to manufacturer runs and not something they do as well. Phillies are under 38-18-5 in Hamels last 61 starts as a favorite as the Mets are under the total 9 out of their last 11 as an under dog.
