We'll continue to fade the Mariners vs. LHP. They are approaching embarassment now with a .602 OPS vs. LHP. Brett Cecil had success in his start over them last year and collectively they have a .552 OPS vs. Cecil. Cecil has looked good in his last few starts and I like his stuff in a game vs. the Mariners who are just 13-38 in their last 51 vs. LH starter, 17-45 in their last 62 as a dog and 10-27 in their last 37 meetings in Toronto. Not only are they last in OPS in the league vs. lefties but they are hitting .195 with just 0.98 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games combined while the Blue Jays are hitting .310 with 7.11 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Pineda has been great all year but it looks like he's starting to approach the unknown zone where he's not used to pitching this many innings. We have already seen it with a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts. He will make his first start on turf tonight where the Jays are 22-7 in their last 29 following off days.
This is pretty much the division race at a glance right here between the Angels and Rangers and tonight we have both teams coming into this series red hot. However, I like the bats of Texas and the pitching match up goes in their favor tonight in my opinion. Chatwood has a 4.80 ERA and 1-4 record during night starts while Ogando has an 8-1 and a 2.67 ERA at night. Ogando also 3.51 ERA in road starts while Chatwood has a 3.84 at home. Chatwood's xFIP is 4.82 much worse than his actual ERA of 3.62 that suggests he's going to continue to decline. I don't see how it hasn't happened quicker as he' only managing 4.71 K/9 while walking 4.71/9 FOR A 1:1 RATIO of K's to walks. While Ogando is 6.71 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9. Feel much better going with the Rangers. Also the Angels have struggled at home vs. RHP .236 average on the season 3.36 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home. Rangers also in their last 10 6.06 runs per 9 while the Angels are sitting at 3.98.
