Freddy is coming off a 2-0 ATS week on college football max rating plays and is in his career on max rating plays, but 38-16 ATS on those plays the last 2 months of the season! Freddy already started this week on a high note with a cover on Thursday and looks to continue that dominance on Saturday with this max play of the day on one of the biggest games on the college football slate!

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I think it’s pretty clear that every time Notre Dame steps on the field they are going to have an inflated point spread, and I think that’s definitely clear against Temple here. There is no doubt that Notre Dame has some momentum coming in, but they haven’t faced a defense like this all year with the exception of Clemson, a game on the road that they lost, but could have won. The problem in that game is they started the game sluggish, and they have been notorious to getting off to slow starts. The problem is they can’t afford that here against Temple who has very good coaching behind Matt Rhule. This Temple team has outscored opponents 137 to 29 in the second half this year and there is no better sign of a good coach.

Temple also should be able to move the ball enough to cover this spread with Jahad Thomas having already proved against Penn State that he can run the ball against top defenses. Thomas had 135 yards against a Penn State run defense ranked much higher in run defense than Notre Dame who ranks 85th in yardage and 90th in yards per carry. Although those numbers are skewed a bit having faced Georgia Tech and Navy they gave up 590 yards to USC in their own building and were lucky to win by forcing 4 turnovers.

Temple is not going to turn the ball over, and I would actually bet that Temple wins the turnover margin. Notre Dame has the tendency to turn the ball over with 20 in their last 9 games dating back to last season. Temple has one of the best front 7 havoc rates in the country and at home they are sacking QB’s on 14% of their drop backs while Notre Dame is 84th at protecting their QB. I expect Notre Dame to keep it on the ground for most of the game and that really favors us covering the spread here. It’s worth noting that Notre Dame has not held an opponent other than Texas under 20 points all season, and Temple’s defense has been dynamite on third downs and in red zone defense. Notre Dame on the road is converting just 18% of the time on third down which is a major concern in this game. I really see Temple coming out strong in this one and coaching will keep them in this one late.

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