Yankees are on fire right now and still remain #3 in the league with a .775 OPS vs. RHP which they will face again on Thursday in Phillip Humber. Humber is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with a 9.00 ERA, but we still get great value here because Humber dominated the Yankees in his debut. Yankees always struggle vs. teams their first time around so Iâm not worried here as Humber has come back to reality. In his last start vs. the Red Sox I spoke about how lucky he has been in his home starts. He did not face a top 10 offensive team in terms of OPS vs. RHP. Then the Red Sox rocked him and now heâs facing the Yankees who in their last 10 games are scoring 8.02 runs per 9. Everyone hit in yesterdayâs game and the Whtie Sox are struggling big time to score runs just 3.54 in their last 10 games and are 18th with a .704 OPS vs. RHP and theyâll face Ivan Nova who has a 1.50 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the White Sox holding them to a .577 OPS in 40 AB. Heâs also been better on the road this year 3.12 ERA and at night 8-4 with a 3.70 ERA. He had 2 starts in August last year and compiled a 2.45 ERA. Walks are what concern me with Nova, but he faces a team that is not very patient much like their manager Ozzie Guillen. They are 27th overall in walks this year 25th vs. RHP. They are not a good home team either 24-31 on the year while the Yankees are 30-20 on the road. Bullpen advantage goes to the Yankees too as the Whtie sox have a 5.81 bullpen ERA over the last 10 games. Yankees are 21-8 in their last 29 after scoring 5+ runs so you have to think theyâll continue the hit brigade on Thursday as the White Sox are just 3-13 in their last 16 as a home dog.
Pirates have gone ice cold but I think this is still an ice cold despite them falling to 1-8 over their last 9 games. Itâs not like they are not in every single game. Cubs now winners of 4 in a row never won 3 in a row just a few days ago so I find it hard to believe they will complete a 4 game sweep especially given how well the Pirates have played at home vs. the Cubs earlier this season taking 7 of 9. McDonald was 4-0 with 2.64 ERA in his last 8 starts before having to visit the Phillies who were red hot at the time and are #8 in the league in OPS vs. RHP. The result 10 hits 5 ER in as many innings. I think he returns to form at home. His main issue has been walks and the Cubs provide a good match up for him as they are dead last in the league in walks this year. Also doesnât hurt that Rodrigo Lopez makes the start for the Cubs heâs 5.51 ERA on the road in just a handful of starts this year but over the last 3 years he has a 3-10 record and 5.13 ERA on the road. Expect the bullpen to get involved in this one and thatâs not a good sign as they have a 5.68 bullpen ERA over the last 10 games. Lopez last 3 years in August has a 9.27 ERA over 6 starts. Cubs are 17-36 in their last 53 following a win and 9-23 in their last 32 as a road dog +110 to +150.
