I have done extremely well on complimentary plays in the PAC 12. Last week we gave you USC and I look to come back and fade the Trojans after they beat a top 5 team at home. Major hang over spot for USC, and the oddsmakers have been so wrong about this team all year. I mentioned in this week's college football betting podcast (search college football betting in itunes), how whacky this PAC 12 conference has been from a betting perspective.
Week 1 â Not hard to screw up the lines this early in the season, but we had Stanford as a 10 point favorite lose on the road against Northwestern. Not many would predict that today.
Week 3- We had USC as a -9.5 favorite at home against Stanford, and USC goes down 41-31 in what was a pretty shocking loss at the time.
Week 4 â There were two games where the line was really off and we had some surprising results. UCLA covered the spread as a 1 point favorite at Arizona by 25 points, and USC who lost huge the week before (20 points of margin ATS), beat Arizona State and covered the spread by 22 points of margin. Oregon was a 10 point favorite against Utah and lost 62-20, an incredible 52 point margin of victory ATS.
Week 5 â Of course that set things up for Arizona State the next week with an inflated line as they were 12.5 point under dogs at UCLA, but get the road victory by 15 points, and 27.5 margin ATS.
Week 6 â The win for USC at Arizona State looks a little better now, and their loss against Stanford not as bad. They are 17 point home favorites against Washington, and lose outright, an incredible 22 point margin of victory ATS for Washington.
Week 7 â Stanford a 6.5 point favorite against UCLA, and both predicted to face off in the PAC 12 Championship which may still happen here. UCLA loses by 21 and I donât think it was even that close. This set things up well for week 8 for UCLA.
California is coming off 2 tough tough road games against Utah, and then at UCLA and now they are back at home. They have a couple of extra days of preparation for this game which I really like, and they play an in state rival. USC, I don't think they will be completely concentrated on this game after defeating a top 5 team, and in doing so they didn't look that great. I felt like we were a bit lucky last week with USC as they forced Utah's QB Travis Wilson into 4 interceptions which was definitely not typical of this year's Utah team. Call has been turning the ball over a lot lately, but I think they are able to bounce back behind the support of their home crowd.
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