Chris Carpenter is one of those players I will back after having a bad outing vs. a team. Carpenter has had two bad starts against the red hot Brewers this year. Both were on the road ironically and Carpenter has been so much better at home this year with a 2.88 ERA. We backed Carp twice this year on MAX plays when he was coming off a rough start against that same team on the road in his previous start. He's a great pitcher to follow in that situation and he came up with gold so I can't help but to back him here on Thursday. Both starts he could not avoid the big inning. In his start in June he cruised through 5 innings giving up 1 ER and then 4 in the 6th. IN his start vs. the Brewers in July he cruised through 4 innings 0 ER and then gave up 5 earned runs. I think those are the type of things he can avoid pitching at home. He faces off against Gallardo who has a 4.14 ERA on the road. He was dominant in his one start vs. St. Louis but he had never won against them prior to that so I expect St. Louis to come out and avoid a sweep by the worst road team in the league that all of a sudden has found a way to win on the road. Gallardo has a 4.77 ERA in 8 career starts vs. the Cardinals. He is 5-18 in his last 23 road starts as a dog. Cardinals are scoring nearly a run better vs. RHP per 9 innings at home than the Brewers are on the road and have an ERA over a run out of their bullpen better at home than the Brewers have on the road. I think Carpenter will put some water on the Brewers fire tonight.
