We have a few things working for us in this match up between a couple of MAC teams still in contention for the MAC West title. Central Michigan is home and an under dog over a key number of 3. They have faced a very challenging schedule early in non-conference play with Oklahoma State, Michigan State, and Syracuse. Toledo ranks 115th having faced and beat Arkansas early, but gave up 500+ yards in doing so. Central Michigan has a few extra days to prepare for this game while Toledo is in a look ahead spot coming off a crushing loss to Northern Illinois. Toledo will get Bowling Green next week, and it's a look ahead because they have taken care of the Chippewas with 5 straight wins, and none of those have been close. Toledo does not know what it's like to lose to this team, but they may find out tonight.
Really both these teams are one dimensional on offense, but I think the home team benefits the most form this. Central Michigan is good with their passing game led by QB Cooper Rush who is arguably the most under rated QB in the nation ranking 26th in QB rating. Toledo is one of the best teams running the ball and have done so successfully even in their loss against Northern Illinois last week, but Phillip Ely really is not a good QB. He's inaccurate and has 5 interceptions over the last two weeks.
When looking at which defense will step up it's clear that Central Michigan has faced a lot more quality running teams than Toledo has faced passing teams. Toledo has faced just 2 teams inside the top 85 in passer rating and both are more well known for their running game in Northern Illinois and Arkansas. Cooper Rush has a ton of options at his disposal, and will be at home where his offensive line has done a better job protecting. This is just Toledo's third road game, they have a 1.42 sack % on the road, and I think they'll have issues tonight. I do expect this game to be close, but..
Central Michigan is a tough team to beat, and I still think Toledo is getting too much credit from the odds makers. Toledo is very heavily penalized 8.4 per game, 10.7 on the road compared to 6.6 for the Chippewas, and they are -2 TO margin on the road, -3 in conference play compared with +5 at home, +4 conference for the Chippewas. The Chippewas also very good on third down holding opponents to 32%, and in the red zone holding opponents to 51% TD's, 38% at home, 37.5% in conference play and have already beaten Northern Illinois. The key is whether or not they can get Toledo into passing down situations, and I believe they can they rank 51st vs. the run, 2.8 ypc allowed over their last 3 games so they are getting better, and have allowed 3.36 at home this year. The schedule does not indicate the type of running teams they have faced, but Syracuse, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, and Northern Illinois all good running teams.
