I won't be one to go against the Brewers at home with Greinke on the mount a perfect 16-0 in his home starts. Greinke has not been overall dominant at home 3.13 ERA here, and his numbers vs. the Cardinals just okay as they have a .284 average and .743 OPS, but he's going to keep them in the game no matter what, and he is 2-0 in his 2 home starts vs. the Cardinals this year giving up 5 ER total in the two starts good for a 3.46 ERA. What I like so much about this match up is the home field advantage, the bullpen advantage and the success the Brewers have at home vs. Garcia along with Garcia's struggles on the road this year and throughout his career.
Garcia on the road this year is just a different pitcher and it's no coincidence over the last 3 years he has an ERA +2.09 on the road more than what he has at home and this season is no different as he posts a 4.61 ERA on the road this year. In his two road starts vs. the Brewers in 2010 and 2011 he has pitched just 9 innings given up 10 ER and 19 base runners including 17 hits. As I mentioned the Brewers are just a different animal at home 50-18 in their last 68. Lastly this game will come down to the bullpen. I don't think Greinke will blow away the Cardinals as we note the talent in their line up, but Garcia won't shut out the Brewers who hit lefties harder than they hit righties at home and in their last 10 have a .324 average with 9.72 runs per 9 vs. LHP. This game to me will come down to bullpen and the Brewers have the advantage. At home this season they have a 2.74 ERA and over their last 10 1.82 while the Cardinals on the road have a 4.03 ERA this year.
