I think we have some great value here today with the Tigers. In our max winner yesterday we mentioned the Rangers struggles to hit on the road vs. what they do at home and now they play a day game where they just did not perform as well as they did during night games. In fact they were just 4 games over .500 during day games while the Tigers were 15.
Tigers send Rick Porcello who has not been that great at home this year, but again he's had success vs. the big hitters from Texas, Beltre, Cruz, and Hamilton are a combined 2-15. As a team they have less at bats vs. Porcello than what the Tigers have vs. Harrison (who we will get to in a minute) and I'm much more confident in a home team that has a bullpen advantage at home. Much like Max Scherzer, Porcello's strength is HR's allowed and he gives up less than 1 per 9 innings. He's given up just 1 HR to the Rangers in 51 AB so I think that will benefit him on Wednesday.
More importantly in this match up is Matt Harrison who has struggled big time in his career vs. the Tigers as he's 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA in 5 career starts, 0-3 at Comerica with a 7.03 ERA. That's an extremely high ERA for a pitcher on the road in a pitchers park like Comerica. Lewis had similar struggles here and I think the same is said for Harrisson who the Tigers have really hit hard. Cabrera, Avilla, Inge, Jackson, Raburn are a combined 22 for 48 with 4 HR. I look for Inge to definitely get the start since he's been so successful vs. Harrison and hits lefties better. The Tigers actually hit lefties better at home than they do righties which is important to note as they score 0.53 more runs vs. LHP at home than against RHP. They are already +1.36 runs per 9 at home compared with the Rangers on the road so I see it as a pretty good edge. Lastly Harrisson has a 2.99 ERA on the road and that's what's pushing this line this way as most bettors are looking at Porcello's struggles at home and Harrisson's success on the road, but a closer look and he has just 4 Top 10 opponents ranked in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP of his 15 road starts and the other 11 are a combined average rank of 23. So he's had an easy road here while Porcello has 14 home starts, smaller sample size and he's faced 5 Top 10 teams at home and his other 9 starts are an average 21st. He's had some really bad starts here that have really inflated his record while Harrisson struggled vs. the top 10 teams including the Tigers 6 IP 4 ER last time here.
Tigers are 48-20 in their last 68 home vs. a winning team, and 51-24 in their last 75 home games vs. LH starter. They are also 17-4 at home vs. the Rangers.
Love the Cards tonight. It seems ironic that the Brewers are backing away from their comments now about Chris Carpenter as both Greinke and Nyjer Morgan have "no comment." To me that's a scared team and they should be the way Carpenter has pitched against them. In his two home starts vs. the Brewers this year he gave up 2 ER in 17 IP. His career post season numbers are great 6-2 with a 2.94 ERA and he just out dueled Roy Halladay. He has much better numbers vs. Brewers hitters compared to Gallardo who has a 4.05 ERA on the road and in his 4 starts this year vs. the Cardinals gave up 8 HR in just 23.2 IP as well as 15 ER and 30 base runners. A scorching red hot Albert Pujols who went 4-5 in the last game is 12-27 with 4HR and a 1.441 OPS vs. Gallardo. Brewers are 4-18 with Gallardo on the mound as a dog and they are 11-23 in their last 34 road games as a dog. Cardinals are just a better more consistent hitting team and they hit righties significantly better especially at home and they are 22-7 in their last 29 vs. RH starter. Cardinals win and take the 2-1 edge.
