This line has moved a little weird and normally I'd have to buy into a home dog in a national spot light playing a team traveling far for the game, but Hawaii comes into this game coming off a break. They have had extra time to prepare and with New Mexico State on deck there is no doubt in my mind they were not looking ahead at their schedule. The line is just 5 points because the last few match ups here have been decided by a TD, but Hawaii has not had a week off to plan. Also San Jose has looked good vs. BYU, UCLA, and Nevada, but all three of those teams don't throw the ball like Hawaii. Last time San Jose played a passing team they lost 57-3. The main issue here is San Jose does not get pressure they have just 3 sacks on the season. Hawaii was able to get a little more healthy on the offensive line that should allow Bryant Moniz time to throw. SJSU is -2 in turnover margin while Hawaii is +1 as Moniz takes care of the ball just 1 interception. Also SJSU is not scoring in the red zone, they have 18 trips with just 7 TD's and 6 FG's. Hawaii has been better on defense in years past and are allowing opponents to convert 37% of the time on 3rd downs which is about where the inconsistent SJSU is converting 38% of their opportunities. That's the difference in the game and the reason I like Hawaii here. Hawaii is 50% on 3rd down for the year and SJSU has allowed opponents to convert on 3rd downs 54% in their last 2 games. SJSU does not have the depth at RB to hold onto the ball nor do they have a consistent offense to keep up with Hawaii who is scoring 37.2 ppg while SJSU is allowing 31. Hawaii also has 19 sacks and are ranked 27th in total defense. That should be enough to give San Jose some issues especially with extra prep.
