Purdue lost 44-10 last year and this is major revenge and I don't think Illinois has emotionally rebounded from their loss last week. Illinois also may have the worst special teams in the nation as they are 112th in punt returns, 107th in punting and 119th in kick returns. Last year Illinois looked like an improved team that was rolling then they had an emotional loss to Michigan and followed that up with a terrible loss to Minnesota and I think history repeats itself.
Purdue has been rolling with their running game that has averaged over 5 yards per carry. Despite Illinois allowing 2.70 ypc, Purdue has proven they can run the ball behind Bolden/Shavers. Penn State was only allowing 3 yards per carry and they are more tested than Illinois front line having played Alabama and Temple so I was impressed with what the duo backs. Add in Illinois turnover issues of late 6 in their last 3 games and they are coming back to reality and they are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 as a favorite 3.5-10 points they are a better team flying under radar.
Very quietly Eastern Mich is putting together a solid season and they lost 45-30 last year at Western Mich so they weren't that far away then especially considering they have the 15th ranked running game and Western Mich has allowed 5.96 yards per carry, 6.85 on the road and 7.30 in the 2nd half of games this year meaning Eastern Mich gets up in this game they can stay on top.
A week ago Tavonti Greene and Dominique White had 257 yards rushing against Central Mich which has a much better run defense allowing 4.35 yards per carry. Last year Eastern Mich had 4.9 ypc vs. Wmich and held onto the ball for nearly 40 minutes despite losing due to their 3 turnovers. They have just 4 turnovers in their 3 home games this year. Eastern Mich defense is also better than a year ago they already have 3 more sacks then they did a year ago and I expect them to really play aggressive and go after the talented passing game of Western Mich. Don't sleep on this secondary they were #1 in pass defense in 2009 in the nation, yes you heard that right, but htey did drop to 119th in pass efficiency defense in 2010. They are experienced and have the ability especially at home to get to the QB and force some mistakes as Western Mich has turned the ball over 15 times this year. This is a trophy game for Eastern Mich as their head coach called it so expect a lot of energy. They had 4 starters return on the OL and they are loaded with depth, they were 2nd in the MAC last year in rushing so their is no secret that Eastern Mich competing was a long time coming and this would be a big statement inside the MAC!
