Troy is on revenge here returning 16 starters that remember their loss quite well to FIU at the end of last year 52-35. Part of that problem was stopping the run and turning the ball over as they were -3 in turnover margin in that game. I donât expect that to happen this year as FIU has only forced 8 TOâs all year and they have 0 INTâs at home. Expect Troyâs Corey Robinson to do a lot of running as FIU has shown an inability to stop dual threat QBâs, Ryan Aplin ran wild in last Tuesdayâs match up.
I also like that this team has an extra 3 days to prepare as they played on the Saturday before FIU played on Tuesday night. The excitement with FIU was itâs win against Louisville and UCF, but Louisville has really come back to earth so to me itâs not as impressive. What is more impressive is Troy being +3 yards in their road game at Arkansas when they lost 28-38 and then only -45 yards vs. Clemson where they were able to move the ball but just could not punch it in the end zone.
Both these teams are similar in 3rd down conversions on offense and defense and the team that plays better there and in the red zone as again both teams are similar converting RZ into TDâs 48%(Troy) 46%(FIU) and allowing 56%(FIU) and 58%(Troy). A TD spread is just too much for me given those stats and Troy has seen a much more challenging schedule with Clemson and Arkansas on the docket. I really like Corey Robinson to have an excellent game the once feared FIU pass rush has disappeared and Troy has allowed only 10 sacks anyway. FIU is not used to being the heavy favorite and they are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU loss. While Troy is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 as a road dog 3.5-10points and more importantly they are 12-3 straight up in their career when playing on ESPN network and the three losses were in bowl games and two came in OT.
Which means this team comes to play and I think the extra preparation got them healthy and ready to for this game on revenge. Theyâll have a better idea on how to defend TY Hilton who torched them everytime he touched the ball last year. If they can limit him as much as possible and not turn the ball over they should win this game.
