Utah State lost last week to New Mexico. New Mexico is ranked 93rd in stopping the run and held Utah State to 78 yards on 37 carries. That is a major red flag as Utah State needs to run the ball to win averaging 5.32 yards per carry in their wins and just 3.13 in losses. The problem is this team has struggled on the road 3.50 yards per carry and rank 96th in adjusted rushing yard stats. They face an Air Force run defense that is very good actually this Air Force defense overall is very good, but 34th in adjusted run defense which is the key here. Air Force went on the road against Michigan State and held them under 2 yards per carry. I think they are capable of holding Utah State in check here. Air Force has held every opponent under 160 yards rushing with the exception of Navy (loss 33-11), and Utah State when held under 160 yards are 0-4 on the season. Make it 0-5 in my opinion.
Air Force running game as typically struggled against Utah State, but there are a lot of red flags that this Utah Stateâs run defense is not as good. They have allowed 11 rushing TDâs in their last 4 games alone (Air Force run defense has allowed 9 all season). Utah Stateâs run defense has allowed 2 games of 270+ yards rushing in their last 3 games overall and both against a 59th ranked defense and 48th. Air Force 2nd in the nation in running the ball and are definitely more capable at home with a 5.5 yard per carry average. They have in the past struggled against this defense, but I think playing at home and the fact that Utah State is allowing 75% conversions of TDâs in the red zone in conference play 71% overall is a huge factor.
Utah State is also -5 TO margin on the road, Air Force is +5. Air Force also strong advantages on 3rd down offense and defense, and in the red zone as we mentioned. They are also being penalized nearly 3 times less than Utah State, and special teams efficiency is about even with Utah State ranking 37th and Air Force coming in at 42nd. I would expect the home field advantage to give Air Force the advantage there as well. Take Air Force to win this weekend.
Auburn is off a huge win over Texas A&M last week on the road. Iâm not surprised at all that they went on the road as a 7 point dog and win outright by 16 points covering the spread by 23 and I think a huge adjustment in this weekâs line has already been made. This was a good match up for Auburn as A&M was 115th vs. the run, and for Auburn to have success right now they have to run the ball, but stopping the run and running the ball this week will not be an advantage they enjoy. That goes to Georgia who actually has the better and more balanced defense, and the running game that is much better.
I took a look at what each team did overall and in conference and Georgia is ranked 12th running the ball in the country averaging 5.6 yards per carry, 5.18 in conference play, they go up against the Auburn run defense that ranks 70th in yards per carry defense and also has given up 19 TDâs 13 in 6 conference games. This could be a huge game for Georgia who struggled with their running game for a while after the Chubb game (2 games), but have been able to coach around it implementing the wild cat with Sony Michael. Georgia has out gained the opposing run defense average in 6 of their 8 games and sometimes doubling it. We saw Auburnâs defense hold opponents under in 6 of 8 games, but not in dominating fashion and LSU ran all over them.
For Auburn who runs the ball 65% of the time they need to run the ball averaging over a yard per carry more in their wins than their losses. The problem is they are only averaging 4.10 yards per carry on the season and have been worse of late and just 3.98 in conference play. Auburnâs rushing offense has faced an average 53rd ranked defense, and Saturday they face the 30th ranked defense. Auburn has ran for more yards per carry vs. the opposing run defense just 3 out of their 8 games while Georgiaâs defense has held opposing rushing offenses under their season average in 7 of 8 games.
In adjusted run defense according to football outsiders Georgia ranks 25th while Auburn ranks 76th. Auburn ranks 57th in adjusted rushing offense, but Georgia comes in at 7th. Georgia is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games I think this line has some value and their defense certainly played better last week holding Kentucky to 180 yards and 3 points. Auburnâs defense played well but still allowed 300+ yards and were lucky to get 3 interceptions. Auburnâs third down defense not very good and they were lucky they allowed just 10 points as A&M converted 10 of 16 third downs. I am worried about Georgiaâs turnovers, but if they play a clean game like they are capable of they should win this game by a TD or more
