Yep Iâm on the large favorite here tonight. Many will be backing Virginia and their 3rd ranked ACC run offense behind Perry Jones and Kevin Sparks. That would be great if they had a passing game to allow teams not to stack the box, but Miami has proven that when they face a run offense that does not have a passing game to go with it that they can be dominant as was the case vs. Georgia Tech as they held them to 2.79 yards per carry in a 24-7 victory. They continue to improve in run defense and they are getting a bunch of players back from suspension which should only help their case and add more depth.
Virginia is a different team on the road, and I donât believe their defense can keep them in the game like in the past. First of all they can not get after the QB with just 8 sacks on the year and Miami has allowed only 9 all year which should allow Jacoby Harris the time to throw. Harris got knocked out in the first quarter of last yearâs loss to Virginia and there should be some extra motivation and revenge for this Miami team thatâs doing some things they do not normally do like turn the ball over. Harris has 12 TDâs 4 INT and 62% completion percentage.
Last year this team was 104th in TO margin, 117th in pen yards per game and now they are ranked 50th with +1 on the year and are +5 in turnover margin over the last 4 games while Virginia is -3 in their last 2 games -5 on the year. They are also ranked 16th in penalty yards this year which are some of the keys to an improving club under Al Golden. The talent is there and always has been can it continue to gel on Thursday night? I think so they are 15-2 on Thursday night games and Virginia lacks the offensive pop to keep up with Miami who I think is going to put up 30 points through their offense and I expect 10 points or so to come via the defense/special teams.
So looking at this game Miami seems to have every edge in my opinion. Pass protection, pass rush, passing/rushing offense and defense, special teams, penalties turnover margin, and even red zone offense and defense where Virginia is allowing 70% TDâs in the red zone in conference play while Miami is allowing 44% in 4 conference games. Virginia also struggled on 3rd down conversions with just 36% over their last 3 games while Miami is converting 44% of the time which will only increase as Jacoby Harris continues to improve and RB Lamar Miller gets more chances. Virginia is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 conference games and are very inconsistent. They came up with a big win vs. Georgia Tech and we all thought they were on their way, but they lost at home as more than a TD favorite to NC State by two TDâs. This is also a team that nearly lost to Idaho and havenât played a road game in some time.
