Like Ole Miss here this game really comes down to the running game and the running defense and Ole Miss is just a little bit better. For one thing Kentucky may have 3 running backs out in this game and Ole Miss had one of the better offensive lines coming into the year. Overall Kentucky just 2.98 yards on the ground in conference play and they are allowing 5.85 yards per carry. Miss finally has a healthy RB in Brandon Bolden and he's averaging 5.74 yards per carry and Jeff Scott behind him is averaging 4.63 yards per carry. Look for Miss to pound the ball in this one as Kentucky is 99th in run defense and 118th in total offense event hough they are at home I like Miss here as it should be a cake walk for them in terms of stopping the run as they have faced some of the best running teams of late.
Also Morgan Newton at QB for Kentucky is a nightmare he's only completing 48% of his passes and their are rumors a true freshmen will get a lot of action this week. Kentucky is 31% on 3rd downs for the year and have turned the ball over 19 times this year. Miss has played a lot better at times but have fallen a part in the third quarter and i think this is the first game there is no way that happens with Kentucky's offense going nowhere. Houston Nutt is 8-4 in November with Ole Miss and he's played a lot of young talent early which will pay huge dividends down the stretch. One guy to keep an eye on is Nick Brassell he plays on both sides. Also take a look at the huge advantage Miss will have in the punting game as they are #1 in the nation with 27.5 yards per return for 2 TD's, while Kentucky is averaging 1.7 yards per return.
This is a huge value play as in my mind Northwestern has been way too competitive in their games vs the top Big Ten teams. They were picked to be right in the mix, but their defense has been awful. I think they have some confidence after a huge win last week, and the offense will be clicking at Nebraska especially after Nebraska just pulled out a huge win vs. Michigan State. Look for a let down I love how Northwestern matches up as their weakness is stopping the pass and Nebraska can't move the ball that way. We should be in great shape if Northwestern can get a lead early as they have had no problem doing that vs. Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan. They were up vs. Michigan 24-14 at the half and to me they mirror a Nebraska team.
