Purdue is just a different team at home as they are 4-1. Ohio State is also a completely different team on the road. Both teams want to run the ball and thatâs why they play better when they are home. Home teams that like to the run the ball have an advantage because their offensive lineâs get off the ball quicker than the defensive line. For two teams trying to run the ball Iâm going with the home dog here especially at more than a TD spread.
Let me give you the facts. Purdue faced a better team in Illinois at least statistically speaking as far as offense and defense and they dominated them in their last home game. Ohio State is one dimensional and when they are on the road they are allowing 4.59 yards per carry where as overall they allow 3.43. Purdue averages 4.55 ypc at home and are ranked 44th nationally. On defense Purdue only struggles on defense when they face a balanced offense at home. Notre Dame comes to mind, but vs. Minnesota and Illinois who are both similar offensive style types to Ohio State they held them to under 3.5 yards per carry combined.
Next Ohio Stateâs bread and butter is defense but on the road this year they are allowing 50% conversions on 3rd downs and have just 4 sacks in 3 road games. Also in the red zone they have allowed 6 TDâs on 10 possessions on the road this year while their offense has gotten into the zone just 6 times and scored 3 TDâs. They also have a huge look ahead game against Penn State next week for a chance to win their Big Ten division but if they are not careful Purdue can get a win here.
Purdue is a veteran team and a team that has been haunted by big plays, but thatâs really not Ohio Stateâs gimmick. Purdueâs offense has scored on their first possession the last two weeks and if they can do it yet again theyâll have a chance for the outright victory. Purdue is not that easy to defend either as they spread the ball around and they have 2 QBâs who can throw and run the ball. AT home they have a 132 QB rating 8 TD to just 2 interceptions so they are not making costly mistakes where an offensively challenged Ohio State can cover this type of a spread on the road.
Oklahoma State is nearly unstoppable on offense and are now ranked 2nd in the nation, but their defense can not stop anyone so I begin to wonder if they really can win out and play LSU in the national championship (assuming LSU doesnât lose). Oklahoma State is 99th vs. pass, and Texas Tech can pass and have shown the ability to stop the pass ranked 35th vs. the pass. Oklahoma State has lived off turnovers and thatâs been the main reason this team has had the ability to cover double digit spreads this year at times, but Texas Tech simply does not turn the ball over. They have lost just 10 all year long.
Texas Tech is also converting 48.9% on 3rd down and completing 68.5% of their passes which means they can have the advantage in time of possession via the pass. If the clock keeps ticking itâs going to be awfully hard for Oklahoma State to cover this type of spread especially vs. a very capable offense in Texas Tech. The line is high because Texas Tech just turned in two terrible games after winning against Oklahoma at Oklahoma.
Texas Tech is 10-2-1 ATS following an ATS loss, 6-1 in their last 7 as a home dog and 45-19-1 ATS in their last 65 following a SU loss.
