I normally love the under dog in these type of match ups, but Miami Ohio just came off a deflating loss to Western Michigan a week ago and they are out of the MAC race and their season is over with 7 losses. No bowl game or magic carpet ride like last season. I think it will be a challenge to get up against an Ohio team that has dominated them going 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings 3 of the last 4 had a spread of a field goal or less and in those games Ohio has won by an average of 17 points. Offensively Miami Ohio can pass the ball but they are dead last in the nation in running ranked 120th in yardage and thatâs not because they throw it 50+ times last week, they average 1.91 yards per carry on the road 2.38 overall. Ohio can concentrate on the pass and it is something they are good at ranked 49th in the nation they have held opponents to just 52% completions and 43.8% at home.
The key to this spread is whether or not they can do that vs. Zac Dysert and I believe they can. Dysert now on the road and Ohio will actually get pressure for the first time as Dysertâs been sacked 14 times in the last 2 games alone. Western Mich did that on the road and they only had 15 sacks on the year before that game. Now they have to face a balanced attack as well. Although their defense has been solid they really havenât had to worry about both the pass and run and thatâs why Ohio has continued to compete for the MAC title year after year. Theyâre balanced on both sides of the ball. They can beat you with the pass with Tettleton to Brazill or with the run as Donte Harden is averaging over 6 yards per carry. Both teams are on short rest and I think it impacts the Redhawks more with having to travel. Look for Ohio to have a big day on the ground setting up 3rd and shorts as the Redhawks have allowed 192 yards rushing per game on the road and nearly 5 ypc.
For all the success of the Miami Ohio passing game they havenât been able to convert on 3rd down itâs something thatâs plagued them all year just 39% on the year and 37% on the road. Ohio is holding opponents to 38% overall and 35.8% at home. In fact Ohio has allowed just 10 possession in their red zone at home over 5 games and only half have been for Tdâs. Ohio knows about struggling in the red zone, and most of those struggles have been on the road. They now face a defense on short rest thatâs allowing 65% TDâs on the road and theyâre facing a balanced offense for the first time since Toledo who were 6-6 in the red zone and they were on the road and scored 49 points. I think Miami Ohio struggles in the red zone on defense tonight and Ohio makes an emphasis on picking up 7 points not 3 after last weekâs struggles which will turn this game into Ohio winning by double figures.
