I'm going to take the Bearcats here in this situation tonight going on the road to face a South Florida team coming off their biggest win in many many years defeating the ranked Temple team and they did so in easy fashion. I had South Florida in a teaser last week and it easily cashed, but on a short week I think the Bearcats will be more ready to win this game. First of all South Florida has placed 3 top 50 offenses (Cincinnati is the best) from a yards per play perspective and has gone 0-3 against them.
This is a major hang over game for South Florida, and Cincinnati clearly playing with an edge right now. They were the pre season favorite, and really if they don't turn the ball over 11 times in their 3 conference losses against Houston, Memphis, and Temple we would be having a different conversation as Cincinnati out gained Houston by 162, Temple by 261, and Memphis by 182, but lost all 3 games! South Florida is ranked 82nd in takeaways and I expect the Bearcats to take care of the ball.
Nobody has stopped this offense all season and I don't see South Florida stopping it either. However, South Florida can run the ball with Marlon Mack and Quinton Flowers and it's not like Cincinnati's defense has played well, it hasn't. I do see Marlon Mack on a short week with 48 carries in his last two games and I really have to wonder if he may get gassed in this game. Cinci, comes into this game with more healthy players, and really is a team that is more capable of playing well on a short week. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings, the value here is on the Bearcats when you consider how South Florida has covered the spread with ease the last two weeks 23.5, and 10.5.
