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Mike Gundy is a terrific coach, and definitely the better coach in this match up. Oklahoma State enjoys one of the best home field advantages in all of football going 26-5 since 2011 here, and even better 23-1 when they are favored, which some books have Oklahoma State favored, and in those 24 games they have out performed the spread by an average of 6 points.
Baylor has been notorious for their easy schedules early, and have gone 6-14 straight up in their last 20 November road games. They scored just 17 points here in 2013 coming in with an undefeated record at the time. The offense has not clicked under Stidham despite his great stats and the rushing offense has been halted in the last two games now that they are playing defenses with a pulse. Stidham not 100% for this game (back), but will likely play, and has his hands full against an Oklahoma State team that is allowing 3.3 ypc on the ground, has 15 interceptions, and a top 10 pass rush. Oklahoma, a team with a top 10 pass rush gave Baylor all sorts of issues as Stidham was constantly under pressure. Look for Emanuel Ogbah to help force a turnover that could change the game.
I think the total is a bit high here as well considering those facts, and the game is calling for 22mph winds, which typically impacts the defenses, I may by back on the over if this line moves down to 71 or 72, and the weather clears up a bit, but at this number I really like the under to hit, and I like Oklahoma State who are 13-3 SU & ATS in their last 16 meetings with Baylor, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall in the month of November.
There is a bit of value here with Oklahoma State after they struggled against Iowa State last week which was to be expected. Iowa State is a well-coached team under Paul Rhoads, like a poor manâs Bill Snyder.
