Uconn + and Money Line
Before you could really beat Uconn with a solid passing game, but right now Cinci does not have that with Munchie and Jordan Luallen both not completing 50% of their passes this offense has gone into a tailspin since losing Collaros and though they went on the road to beat Syracus last week it was all about Isaiah Pead and Uconn boasts the best run defense in the Big East and they are #3 in the nation. That ranking is legit their front 7 is the best Iâve seen in this league and they are allowing more than a yard less per game than Syracuse was. Once Uconn stops the run they should have success picking off passes or forcing three and outs as they have allowed just 32% conversion. Cinciâs offense with Collaros really was not converting 3rd downs at a high rate to begin with and the last 2 games they are at 33% so really this should be an interesting close fought game.
Both teams will try to run because they just canât pass and itâs clear Uconnâs better at stopping the run and have more to play for. If West Virginia loses on Thursday then Cinci has a chance at the Big East title but Uconn is trying to go bowling and they just dominated a Rutgers team that dominated Cinci 20-3 at home. Uconn is an impressive 20-8 ATS in their last 28 as a 3.5 to 10 point dog, defense just gets it done and they know when to play conservative and keep away. Cinci meanwhile is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games.
So we were wrong a week ago when Houston went into Tulsa and dominated, but if you watched the game you saw something very different from what the final score indicated. Tulsa was able to get into the backfield and get pressure on Case Keenum countless times. They could not take advantage of the turnovers and they had several turnovers in the red zone that ended all momentum. Needless to say Tulsa choked and Southern Miss will not.
Actually you can argue Austin Dantin and Smiss are better than Tulsa and theyâll have to be to be in this game against Houston #1 in total offense. Southern Miss stacks up better offensively and defensively. As we mentioned last week Houston struggles when they have no balance and Southern Miss is 20th vs. the run allowing just 2.72 yards per carry in conference play 3.28 overall. Southern Miss is great at forcing negative plays with 89 tackles for loss which was 29 better than Tulsa that regularly got into the backfield of Houston in the first half.
If SMU and La Tech whom both have impressive defenses (not as good as Southern Miss) can hold Houston under 40 points so can Southern Miss. If they do that than the game will be there for the taking. Houstonâs offense has really not been as good as advertised of late with RB Bryce Beal not 100%. Houstonâs HC Kevin Sumlin has already said they wonât change a thing and I think opponents are starting to catch on and having more and more of a chance to take down the Houston Cougars. Southern Miss offense is balanced they have 500+ yards in their last 3 games and they are averaging over 5.2 yards per carry this season 4.85 on the road enough to give Houston some fits. Southern Miss pass defense is much better than Tulsaâs that had all kinds of issues in the 2nd half vs. Keenum. They allowed a QB rating 20 points less, 4% less completion percentage and have only allowed 12 TD and picked off QBâs 16 times.
Lastly red zone defense that could be the difference. Both teams have allowed opposing teams to get down their around 40 times this year. Southern Miss has been great holding them to field goals by only allowing 48% TDâs while Houston not as impressive with 58%.
