Yesterday was stressful to watch between double digit turnovers combined between western mich and louisville we still nearly covered both sides today will be different get the early play backed by a full in depth analysis!


Love Toledo a team that nearly went to Ohio State and won, but allowed Ohio State to come back to win 27-22.  I bring that up because this defense is better than they rank statistically especially against teams that do not and can not throw because that’s the weakness of Toledo. We know what Air Force is and I think Toledo will be able to force some punts in this one they held Ohio State to 3.29 ypc, Boise 3.82, Temple 3.15 and Eastern Mich 2.78.  They really only allowed Northern Illinois to run over 4 yards per carry now they face Air Force with the triple option, but I think the LB are more than capable with enough preparation to stop Air Force enough so that Toledo’s high flying offense can score points and points they will score.
 
Toledo has balance they are 29th in passing yards 14th in rushing yards and 8th overall and 8th overall in scoring points.  Air force did play defense last 5 games, but they faced the following teams ranking in total offense 96, 115, 61, 79, and 114.  Mix that in and 2 of their wins also came vs. FCS opponents.  Their run defense is the real weakness allowing over 5 yards per carry on the year while Toledo is 21st with 5.0 ypc.  Adonis Thomas is leading the team with 6.46, but QB Owens is a dual threat option that also completes a high percentage of his passes.  In all they have 4 RB averaging over 5 yards per carry and they are ranked 13th in the nation with 67.13 % passing between their two starting QB’s Dantin and Owens.  I bring that up because –
 
Air Force gets no pressure and Toledo sacked just 9 times this year.  When Air Force faced balanced teams or even good QB’s they struggled.  Here are the numbers in pass defense they gave up 75% to Notre Dame, 71.4% San Diego State, 79% to Boise, and 80% to TCU.  Their defensive front is not built to stop the run and if a team can pass down the field they really can’t cheat up with their LB’s and safeties.  Up front their front 3 are 225-230 lbs.  Look for an offensive line led by Mike VanDerMeulen 6-5 and 305 lbs to have a great day.  So maybe Air Force can force turnovers?
 
Air Force themselves have lost 24 this year and Toledo has #3 in the nation with just 12 total turnovers and they’re +16 on the season.  That’s a head ache we don’t have to worry about in this game as yesterday’s two games where we went 0-2 were a nightmare of mistakes including 7 turnovers by Western Mich who still almost covered their +3 losing 37-32 despite allowing kick off returns and onside kicks.  Today Toledo won’t be a mess like the other teams I’ve backed.  Another stat to give you confidence is Toledo has actually dominated time of possession holding onto the ball over 3 minutes more than what Air Force has been able to do.  That comes with their ability to get off the field on third downs holding opponents to 35% while Airforce is one of the worst in the nation at 50.5% and 56% on the road.  This will end drives and keep Air force from scoring TD’s  They are actually just 50% in the red zone over their last 4 games offensively while Toledo is 80% over their last 4 games so expect a few things here.  Toledo to score TD’s Air Force field goals and for Toledo to get more 3rd down stops than Air Force.

Where to find Freddy?