The 49ers are about to be tested, but there is a lot about their play at home that I like other than the fact they allow just 10.9 points per game. They are probably the leagues best all around defense, but they'll have their hands full with the Saints who broke an NFL record in 3rd down conversions at 57.08% on the season and over their last 3 have converted 70% of their 3rd down attempts. Guess what all 3 of those games were at home and now they are going on the road where they scored roughly 2 TD's less. The Saints have also played 12 of their 17 games in a dome this year. When they were not in a dome they averaged 25.8 ppg a significant decrease to their dome and carpet stats.
The 49ers are very similar but a lot better than some of the teams the Saints have struggled with on the road including The Titans and Jaguars which I will get to in a second. The 49ers are just so much better than those two teams they have extra time to prepare and that's something that will only benefit this team. This season they had two games one with 10 days and another with 14 days. They won by a combined score of 46-10. The other time they had 8 days as they played a Monday after a Sunday and came up with a 20-3 domination of the Steelers. The 49ers are also the #4 red zone defense allowing just 41.18% TD's, and are #1 in allowed attempts with 2.1. The only opponents in the top 10 in % were the Falcons and Titans who allowed 22 and 26 points when the Saints visited them. Again 49ers are better in this area.
San Fran is also #1 in TO margin while New Orleans is 19th. I think it's going to be the 49ers game to lose and they won't make the costly turnover to do so meanwhile the Saints have faced very bad defenses on the road from a pass defense perspective. The 49ers are in the middle of the pack in yardage but that's because nobody can run on them as they are #1 rush defense in yards allowed and yards per carry. The Saints rely on their rushing offense much more than many people realize and it'll be a huge key on Saturday. The 49ers are actually 4th in QB rating allowed. The Saints have faced just two other teams on the road in the top 15 and those were the Jaguars and Titans at 14th and 15th who they managed to score just 23 and 22 points against. But neither of those team's had the pass rush that the 49ers have. Just take a look at the pass rushing teams that the Saints have faced out of domes this year. They're ranked 31st, 32nd, 29th, 25th, and 26th. Again they'll have their hands full and I like the value I'm getting with the general public backing the red hot Saints who a year ago had to go out west and got shut down by the Seahawks. This was once a team that allowed 31 points and went 8-17 on third down against the Rams in a road loss. The Rams were arguably the worst team in the league.
