Dayton +2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Still a live for a top 4 seed in the A-10 conference which will get them a bye with the rest of the teams. Dayton has won 4 of 5 and they are allowing opponents to shoot 21.6% from 3 over their last 6 which is key considering Richmond shoots 40% of their shots from beyond the arch. Dayton has too much momentum and despite being on the road I love teams that rebound better than opponents, are good FT shooters and are under dogs with a lot to play for.
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Dayton is 48th in rebound % on the year and they are even better on the road where they have a +6.4 advantage where Richmond is 329th and -2.3 at home. Dayton is also a rare 80% FT shooting team on the road. The only way Richmond wins this game is if they got extremely hot from the perimeter and I don’t think that happens the way they have been shooting just 40% in their last 5 and 28.4% from 3. Dayton is playing quality defense and are a much better team than Richmond this year who are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite .5 to 6.5. The dog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
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Miss State -2.5 (2.2* play)
It’s hard to back this team at this point, but they have so much more talent and are desperate vs. a very bad South Carolina team. SC has one SR so I don’t think playing their last home game will be much of a factor. Miss State has a huge advantage inside with Moultrie and South Carolina has a suspect perimeter defense allowing 38.6% from beyond the arch. Bost and Steele should have huge games and I see Moultrie bouncing back with a Âdouble double. South Carolina is 242nd in rebound % and they are also 4-11 ATS in their last 15 as .5 to 6.5 home dogs. They have nothing to play for while Miss State is a veteran bunch playing for their NCAA Tournament lives against a bunch of under classmen. ÂThis should be an easy win for Miss State.