I love the Orioles here despite the Twins looking as healthy as they have been in quite some time with Morneau and Mauer in the starting lineup.  However, this team is a completely different team that competed for the division the year before as they no longer have Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer or Delmon Young who were all integral parts of that team.  Both of today’s starters struggled in April last year posting ERA’s over 5, but Jake Arieta has the advantage pitching at home for one and since his surgery he seems to have better control and has higher velocity this spring.  I think he’s destined for a better year and it starts today at home on opening day on the Orioles 20th anniversary.
 
If you look back at Arieta he had one rough start against the Rangers in April and his other 5 starts combined he posted a 3.10 ERA which included his first start against the Tigers 6 IP 1 ER.  He also goes up against a line up that was 28th in OPS on the road (.662), 28th in OPS vs. RHP (.665), and 23rd in OPS during day games (.683).  While Baltimore was 11th with .728 OPS vs. RHP, 11th .743 in home games and 10th during day games with a .738.  Pavano has had his struggles with the Orioles giving up 7 ER last April at Camden yards.  Orioles hitters combined have a .298 average and a .769 OPS.  Pavano over the last 3 years has never pitched well in April compiling a 5.56 ERA and he’s off a rough spring where he had 6 starts, 1.63 WHIP and a 6.17 ERA.

Where to find Freddy?