Rockies -107 (4.5* MLB POD)
I love this play Arizona has cooled down which is expected after playing in San Diego in what is a pitchers park. Now they go to Coors Field but over the last few years the Rockies have really learned how to win with pitching here. Juan Nicasio starts for the Rockies following his great 1st start 7 IP 1 ER with nasty stuff vs. the Astros. Nicasio will face a line up with 6 RH batters. That's good news for him.
First off Nicasio had a 1.98 and a 4-1 record at Coors last year before his neck injury. What's impressive is his 3.43 XFIP which is much lower than his 4.14. At home his FIP was even better but more importantly he dominates vs. RHB. He's averaging a 2.59 FIP vs. RHB and 6K/BB as opposed to 2.15K/BB vs. lefties. He's also allowing only 15.8% line drives vs. RHB compared to 27.4% vs. LHB. IT also helps that the Dbacks have never seen Nicasio before.
On the flip side you have Hudson who has struggled in April before and is coming off a rough start. He'll have his hands full with a Rockies line up that showed just what it's capable of with scoring 17 runs on Wednesday. Rockies are now 4th in the league in OPS vs. RHP with a .816 while the Dbacks dropped to 15th. Rockies bullpen has also been excellent at home with a 1.98 ERA and I think the starting rotation will start to folllow starting tonight. Both teams were close in OPS vs. rhp last year 8th for the Rockies 9th for the Dbacks but the Rockies are now healthy after having many injury issues a year ago. Dbacks are just 2-6 when Hudson is on 8 days rest like today. I see the Rockies winning.
