We get great odds here considering the Cubs being the road team. That's because Matt Garza has been great this year with a 1.23 ERA, but the Marlins hitters have plenty to be confident about. For on they have 67 AB, .328 average and a .974 OPS in their combined careers vs. Garza. Garza did dominate them last year but that was at home. This is Garza's first road start this year and first start at night. Two scenarios he did not like a year ago as he posted gray home & day ERA's of 2.46 and 2.69, but he had a 4.56 ERA on the road and a 3.92 ERA at night. He is coming off a start where he threw 119 pitches which is an awful lot this early in the season and he's playing a Marlins offense that just started to heat up scoring 19 runs in their last 4 games compared to 27 over their first 8.
Mark Buehlre also makes the start for the Marlins and he's been pretty good thus far and now he gets to pitch in the friendly new park for the first time. Buehlre has faced the Cubbies many times with the White Sox and posts a nice ERA against them as the Cubs hitters have 182 AB but just a .225 average and .562 OPS. Cubs are 3-11 in their last 14 as a dog and the Marlins have a considerably better bullpen with a 3.54 ERA overall compared to the Cubs 4.50, but they are at home where they post a 2.84 compared to the Cubs 5.25 on the road.
Garcia got bombed in Cinci giving up 11 hits in 4.2 IP in his last start but that's reason for revenge and these are great odds considering. It will be a flip flop as I believe Latos will have a harder time against the Cardinals pitching on the road where St. Louis is just dominating. St Louis is #1 in the league in OPS at .870. Even without Freese and Berkman this team has been great as Matt Carpenter stepped in and proved he's a clutch player. The Reds are good against lefties but Garcia at home is a different pitcher where he posted a 2.55 ERA last year. This is his first home start so I expect a good game out of him. HIs last 4 home starts vs. the Reds he posts a 2.18 ERA.
