I don't see a pitching advantage for Washington here as Bud Norris was pretty consistent home/away/night/day last year and I'm fine backing him with this type of juice at +149. He goes up against Edwin Jackson who is off a complete game and a great start but if you know Jackson you know he's not always consistent, but this has more to do with Bud Norris. Norris has a 3.46 ERA through 2 starts this year and he posted a 2.57 ERA vs. the Nationals last year and has two quality career starts in Washington. The Nationals have 63 career at bats and a .190 average and .515 OPS vs. Norris. Though the Nationals are off to a great start it's not like they are explosive offensively thus far as they rank 19th in OPS .697 vs. RHP as the Astros are 15th.
Jackson is off a complete game and I love fading a pitcher in the next game especially one that doesn't have a huge edge. That pitcher usually will come out a little flat and I think we can expect that on Thursday. After all Jackson has struggled in April in his career posting a 5.86 ERA last year and is due for a poor outing. He hasn't faced the Astros since 2009, but Carlos Lee is 3-7 with a HR. Both pitchers xFIP's were pretty even last year and the bullpens this year offer no significant advantage on either side. This line is way off in my opinion and I'll take the value with Norris.
Jason Hammel (2GS 2.08 ERA, 2011 stats: 3.23 ERA April, 7IP 2ER vs. White Sox)
Bronson Arroyo (2GS 2.63 ERA, 2011 stats: 3.77 ERA day, 3.64 ERA April)
Edwin Jackson (2GS 2.57 ERA)
Henderson Alvarez (2GS 2.77 ERA, 2011 stats 4.30 ERA at home)
C.J. Wilson (2GS 1.38 ERA, A's 104AB w/ .173 average & .535 OPS vs. Wilson)
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Cold starter has got to be Josh Collmenter who has a 12.86 ERA through two starts thus far. It's a huge set back and it will be interested to really see if he stays in this rotation. He does return home to face the Braves who got hot with their bats in the last two games against the Mets. Collmenter goes up against Minor who had a 5.14 ERA on the road last year. Arizona is not exactly friendly for pitchers but Collmenter managed a 3.30 ERA and 9-4 record at home he also has a 0.69 ERA vs. the Braves in 2 starts a year ago.
[b:q1w9yqhl]Notable Cold Starters:[/b:q1w9yqhl][/size:q1w9yqhl]
Aaron Harant (2GS 5.67 ERA)
Randy Wolf (2GS 10.61 ERA)
Phil Hughes (2GS 9.00 ERA)
Josh Tomlin (2GS 8.31 ERA)
