I love the Cardinals here today despite Wainwright's early struggles and getting hit hard by this very Cubs team a week ago I"m backing him this time in my play of the day and I'll tell you why. Wainwright looked solid all spring so there is no reason to think he's not 100%. Also his xFIP is actually 3.13 as he has 9.22 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9. He's been pretty unlucky with a .325 BABIP and 46.7% LOB. Wainwright has dominated the Cubs in the past 2.65 ERA over his last 8 and a 2.67 ERA at Wrigley over the last 3 seasons. The cubs are 25th in OPS vs. RHP and 24th in home OPS. While the Cardinals are still dangerous offensively with or without Berkman ranking 5th in OPS vs. RHP and 4th with a .786 OPS on the road. Theya re 36-15 in their last 51 vs. RH starter and 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a starter wtih a WHIP > 1.30. Jeff Samardzija has been a reliever in past seasons and in his career he has 18 IP with a 7.50 ERA vs. the Cardinals who he owns a 2.44 WHIP against. Cardinals hitters have 65AB a .369 average .461 OBP and a .876 OPS. Cubs are also 7-19 in their last 26 as an under dog.
I like Alvarez over Hunter. First of all he's got 3 great performances against the Orioles who are 17th in OPS vs. RHP and they have acomibned 54 AB .204 average and a.555 OPS. Last time he pitched at Camden he went 8 IP 0 ER. He's got a WHIP of 1.03 this season and a WHIP under 1 in 22 IP in three starts in the last year vs. the Orioles who over their last 5 are hitting .200 vs. RHP and are scoring 3.09 runs per 9. ON the other hand the Jays are hitting .308 5.23 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5 and they own Tommy Hunter who in 7 career starts has a 7.40 ERA. His best start vs. the Jays was 6.1 IP 4 ER. So he's been consistently bad. Jays are 48-23 in their last 71 meetings.
