Orioles are off to a great start again and I'm loving them in this match up with Arieta making the start. Arieta has a 2.63 ERA in 2 home starts and now he goes up against the Oakland A's who are last in the league in runs scored and 30th with a .582 OPS vs. RHP. Baltimore also has a solid bullpen behind him with a 1.96 ERA on the year better than the A's 2.35. Arieta has improved his walk numbers and his HR/9 although it's early I think both of those will continue here today against the A's who have just 17 AB against Arieta.
Brandon McCarthy already making his 6th start has a 4.00 ERA, but much like previous years most of that success is in Oakland where the ballpark is just different. He posted a 4.73 ERA over the last 3 years on the road compared to his under 3 ERA at home. He's got 3 starts vs. Baltimore over the last 3 years for a 5.82 ERA. 17 IP and 30 BR and 4HR are not good stats and he was worse in his lone start at Camden Yards posting a 7.20 ERA. Baltimore has 59 AB a .322 average and .879 OPS vs. McCarthy. O's are 10th in OPS at home posting a .768 and they go up against an A's team hitting just .212 on the road vs. RHP.
Marlins just had a rough road trip but they return home where I think they could get some momentum because of who they are facing in Joe Saunders. Saunders off to a great start with a 1.29 ERA has a 3.59 XFIP which means he's pitching better than he should. Against the Marlins he's been just awful giving up 9 ER in 12 IP a year ago and the Marlins have a .406 average and 1.215 OPS in 64AB. The starters are 17-36 off Saunders with the exception of Hanley Ramirez who has 0 AB and John Buck (back of lineup) Zambrano takes the ball and he's pitching well despite being 0-3 with a 0.95 WHIP and a 2.84 ERA. Dbacks have 87 AB .172 average and .507 OPS vs. Zambrano and it really hurts them that they are still without Davis.
Last visit to Texas Shields gave up 7 ER and the Rangers continue to hit and are ranked #3 in OPS vs. RHP with a .835 while the Rays can hit lefties for power they struggle getting on base so this position is a good situation to be in especially since the Rays are 7-19 in their last 26 as a dog +110 to +150. The biggest difference is the bullpen as the Rays are 6.46 on the season and the Rangers are 2.06.
