Braves -110 2.2* bonus
Tim Hudson has a 3.19 ERA in 6 career starts vs. the Reds which is nothing special, but over the last 3 years he has a 2.46 ERA in 41 home starts. He faces the Reds who are 24th in OPS vs. RHP. These are great odds because Johny Cueto is on the other side of the hill and is leading the National League in ERA, but I think heâll have issues here today. Bourn, Heyward, McCann, Prado and Uggla are a combined 16-47 .340 averages vs. Cueto and the Braves are 11th in OPS vs. RHP. Braves are averaging 1 run better per 9 vs. RHP this year and at home vs. away they are +2.29 compared to the Reds. There is no way Cueto is that much better and his offense is not nearly as good right now as the Braves has been. Cueto also posts a xFIP of 3.75 which means his ERA is not going to stay where it is. Braves are 6th vs. the fastball, Cuetoâs best pitch while the Reds are 20th vs. the same pitch that Hudson throws 50% of the time along with 5 other pitches. Hudson is not an easy guy to figure when heâs got everything going.
Giants -157 5.5* MLB POD
Jeremy Guthrie has a 5.92 ERA and a xFIP of 5.75. How he is pitching is not shocking right now when you can only strike out 1.85 batters per 9 innings you are having a lot of balls end up in play. Heâs also been really lucky with a .239 BABIP so things could be a lot worse and I think they will get worse here today. Guthrie goes up against the Giants who have a .294 BABIP, and heâs backed by an offense that is not even close to what they are at home. Rockies are 29th out of 30 teams in OPS on the road with a measly .620 OPS. Meanwhile the Giants are a lot better. The Rockies have a .207 average and are scoring 2.57 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road this year and their bullpen is not helping things either at 5.35 ERA. Giants hitters have a .406 average and a 1.162 OPS vs. Guthrie as they hit him hard in Colorado 9 hits 6 ER. Rockies are just 17-42 in their last 59 as a road under dog.
