Pittsburgh -4.5 3.3% play
I like Pitt here to win by double digits in this game. This is another example of me liking the ACC over the Big Ten. ACC is 4-1 this year against the Big Ten including Pitt’s win over Penn State. Pitt has had a fabulous season when you consider they beat the ACC Champion and the Big Ten Champion. That’s simply amazing and they played some close games against Oklahoma State, North Carolina all good teams. When Northwestern stepped it up in competition they went 1-4. Their only win against an Iowa team that has no offense and their 4 losses were by an average of 11 points per game.

Pittsburgh has an elite offense that can beat you with the pass and the running game behind leader John Conner. Their QB Nathan Peterman is extremely explosive with 9 yards per attempt while throwing for 26 TD’s and only 6 interceptions. Northwestern’s defense which ranks higher than Pitt has some vulnerabilities that fit well here. They tend to wear down late in a game against physical teams (see Minnesota and Wisconsin), and they give up big plays. Pitt is 22nd in the nation in explosiveness.

Northwestern’s QB Clayton Thorsown will have some success, but I think they will struggle in the red zone without much out of their running game. Pitt is extremely stout up front and they have a considerable advantage in this game in the trenches. Pitt’s sack leader Ejuan Price should play a big factor in this game and is the reason why they are +30 in sacks compared to -9 for Northwestern. They are also +21 in tackles for loss compared to Northwestern so a huge advantage in the trenches. Northwestern has not faced a team that can beat you with the pass and run and I would argue this is the best offense they have faced all year and I feel confidence they will lose this game big.