I am loving the way the Orioles are playing and their star Adam Jones is the reason why as he's hitting .348 during his 16 game hitting streak. The Royals will face a lefty and that is not something they get too excited over as they are 22nd with a .655 OPS this year and are a meager 14-47 in their last 61 road games vs. a left hand starter. They faced Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks for the first time and he shut them out for 7 innings. Now Wei-Yin Chen makes his debut and has been lights out with a 1.98 ERA at home. Chen is primarily a fastball and change up pitcher with 80% of his pitches coming from those two pitches and the Royals are ranked 21st and 28th overall vs. the fastball and change up. I'm expecting a quality start from Chen here.
As for the Orioles they have some revenge to take on Felipe Paulino who is pitching out of his mind right now with an ERA under 2. That's something out of the ordinary because Paulino over the last three years has 24 road starts and 41 games with a 5.85 ERA. He shut the Orioles out at home earlier this year but now he has to do it on the road and on top of that he's doing it against an Orioles team that's been clutch 14-3 vs. a starter with a whip under 1.15. Paulino also in a hang over spot as he pitched great vs. the Yankees and that's another reason why we have great odds in this situation. The line should be at least -130, but we are getting it at close to money. Paulino is all about the fastball and slider. He averages a 95mph fast ball, but guess what the Orioles are absolutely a fast ball hitting team (5th in the league vs. the fastball) and they are not so bad against the slider that he throws 27% of the time (ranked 11th). Baltiomore is 4th with a .751 OPS during day games and are 9-4 overall with a 3.99 ERA while the Royals are 5-8 with a 4.47 ERA.
Scherzer was great against the Pirates with 15K's 2 ER, but that was against the Pirates and although you may not think the Twins are much better they do have some challenges in their line up in Mauer, Willingham and Morneau who are 10-23 vs. Scherzer with 3 HR. Scherzer has a 6.45 ERA in 6 starts vs. the Twins and has struggled on the road. His QS vs. the Pirates is a bit over rated considering Verlander nearly shut them out and R. A. Dickey too had his career high of 11K's in just 6 innings. Flat out the Pirates are just very bad. Twins have been hitting lately and they send Carl Pavano to the mound who the Tigers have enjoyed great success against with 188 AB , .346 average and .927 OPS. Pavano has not been his usual consistent self at home posting a 6.65 ERA this year. Both teams are in the top half of the league in offense during day games and the Twins are last in ERA with a 5.56 during day games. Both bullpens are nothing special and I expect runs to be scored in this game because of it. The over is 7-3 in Scherzer's last 10 on 5 days rest and 18-7-2 in the Twins last 27 vs. a starter with a whip > 1.30.
