Two south paws kick off a day game today where the Red Sox are 10-15 during the day this year while the Blue Jays are 15-13. However Boston has hit the ball better during day games than the Jays and are considerably better at home vs. the Blue Jays on the road. The Jays were cooled down last night as the Red Sox won and I think itâs due to happen once again tonight as they face John Lester who has a 1.99 ERA over his last 7 starts vs. the Jays. Lester also posts a 2.86 ERA during his day starts this year, 3.11 in his previous 27. Also in his last three years he posts a 2.26 ERA during June. The Blue Jays big hitters Bautista is just 8-42, Lind 3-24, Encarnacion 2-17, and Davis 3-16 off Lester. He should have plenty of confidence knowing the Jays have struggled off him.
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On the other side the Red Sox have gotten to Romero on and off during his career. Particularly Romero has struggled with a 5.85 ERA over his last 7 visits to Fenway and the Red Sox are hitting the ball well right now. Romero has given up at least 4 runs over his last 6 starts. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia are a combined 19-58 with 2 HR and both are over a .900 OPS vs. Romero. The Red Sox collectively are 2nd in OPS vs. LHP with a .799 on the year and at home are scoring 6.36 runs per 9 vs. LHP compared to the Jays 4.35 on the road. Red Sox are also +1.27 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. LHP compared to the Jays with a bullpen that is nearly 3 ERA points better. Jays are 8-21 in their last 29 road games vs. a winning team while Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. LH starter 8-3 with Lester on the mound vs. the Jays. Lester has gotten a bad rap this year despite his BB/9 and HR/9 numbers being down. Heâs been unlucky with a .325 BABIP and 66.2%LOB.
