I love this play based on the success Mat Latos has had over the years against the Giants particularly at ATT Park where he has a 1.85 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in his last 5 starts here. Collectively the Giants have just a .566 OPS against Latos who before this year had 3.17 ERA during his last 27 day starts compared to Zito who has a 4.56 over his prev 21. Reds are also an excellent day hitting team where they rank 8th in OPS while the Giants are 24th with a .676 OPS during the day. The Reds are also one of the better hitting teams vs. LHP ranking 5th with a .790 OPS and they are even better against Zito.
The Reds have a .307 and a .921 OPS in 127 AB vs. Zito, but the starting line up today is collectively 28-88 with 3 HR and a .318 average. Zito has pitched well during the day and at home which is the reason we are getting such a low line. However he's been really lucky considering he's got just 5.03 K/9 and 4BB/9 this year. He's held opposing batters to a .250 BABIP so that's one of the reasons his 4.00 ERA is where it is but it should be closer to his 5.21 XFIP. Latos on the other hand has 8.42K/9 and 2.84 BB/9 and his xFIP is 3.95. His greatest weakness is also a weakness of the Giants. He's given up 1.73 HR/9, but the Giants are 28th overall in HR and 29th in HR during day games with just .54 HR/day game.Oddsmakers have been pretty accurate with the lines when Zito starts as the Giants are 4-12 in his last 16 as a dog +110 to +150 and I'm betting that trend moves to 4-13.
