I'm looking for the Reds to take another game on the road against the Padres despite the great pitching of late by Clayton Richard who has relied on the ground ball. Homer Bailey though has better numbers vs. the opposition and I'm banking on him to continue that as he has posted a 3.48 ERA in 5 career starts and he's been pitching great on the road posting a 1.89 ERA over his last 5. He goes up against the Padres who are 28th in OPS vs. RHP with a .680 and are scoring just 2.97 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home.
Clayton Richard can not claim such success vs. the Reds who he has posted a 5.57 ERA against over 4 career starts. Phillips, Votto, and Bruce are 11-25 combined alone and the Reds are 5th with a .781 OPS vs. LHP this year. The Reds also have the better bullpen this year by nearly an entire run. The Reds are 27-9 in Bailey's last 36 starts vs. a team with a losing record while Clayton Richard is 5-19 in his last 24 home starts. Richard has gotten it done thus far by being in the top 10 with the ground ball. He only K's 5.23 guys per 9 and his .260 BABIP and 69.5LOB% are well below the norm and are what I consider to be lucky. He faces a Reds team that is 7th in LD% vs. LHP, 26th in GB's meaning they just don't hit grounders as they are 4th in HR/FB so Richard can't expect the same amount of ground balls today and I think the Reds will be able to scratch a few runs across and hold onto any lead with their great bullpen.
