Tim Lincecum has not been the same pitcher all year. His main issues have been his control where he is walking 4.7 guys per 9 innings, but the fact that he's taken 2 mph off his fastball on average can not be ignored either. He's had a 8.65 ERA in his last 5 road starts and he's faced some bad hitting teams. Those 5 teams were ranked at the bottom of the league in OPS vs. RHP 30, 29, 28, 23, and 18th. The Pirates are at the back of the league in OPS vs. RHP too however over their last 10 games they have been hitting scoring 6.95 runs per 9 vs. RHP and batting .300.
A.J. Burnett makes another start and he's been dominant much of this year. He's got a 2.01 ERA at home and a 2.86 ERA during day starts which backs up the Pirates #1 ERA during day games at 2.68. Pirates also are the best home team this year. Burnett eve has controlled Melky Cabrera who is 2-21 vs. the RHP. The Pirates are 20-7 in their last 27 as a favorite and 20-6 in their last 26 home games while Burnett is 11-0 in his last 11 starts. Lincecum on the other hand 5-16 in their last 21 on 4 days rest and 2-10 in his last 12 road starts.
