Pirates -158 (5.5* MLB POD)
Paul Maholm faces his old team on the road on Tuesday where he posts a 6.15 ERA this year.  He’s posted an ERA under 1.00 over his last 4 combined starts, but he has faced some bottom feeders to get there and 3 of those 4 starts were at home.  The Pirates were shutout yesterday, but I think they bounce back today against the Cubs who were shutout in a 3 game sweep against the Cardinals over the weekend.  The Pirates have pretty good numbers in limited at bats vs. Maholms, who I’m not that impressed with his stuff.  He’s allowed a .324 average on the road and walks 3.51 guys per 9 while giving up 1.73 WHIP.  That’s nothing compared with the pure dominance James McDonald has had at home.
 
McDonald has had a quality start in all of his home starts with the exception of one start vs. the Royals.  On the year he posts a 1.69 ERA at home and although he’s struggled of late it was his back to back starts in Milwaukee where he’s regularly struggled and in Colorado.  Colorado is not an easy place to pitch when you are only getting 40% ground balls so I was not surprised when he didn’t pitch well.  Back at home in Pittsburgh the fly ball is not a bad thing.  He’s also held opponents to a .179 average at home and he’s got a left on base % of 85.3% that I don’t believe will change against the lowly Cubs who are 27th in average with runners on base and 28th with a .228 average with runners in scoring position.  They don’t get on base or have much power in that situation either because they are ranked 27th with a .669 OPS with runners in scoring position.
 
The last thing I would look at is bullpen and there just is no comparison.  If the Pirates have a lead after the 6th inning you can forget about it.  They have a 2.15 ERA at home miles away from the Cubs 5.26 bullpen ERA on the road.  The cubs also have a 5.84 ERA in their last 10 games.  Given how well Maholm has pitched and his familiarity with PNC this game should come down to the bullpen which in this case I’ll take the Pirates every day of the week.  After all the Cubs are 17-42 in their last 59 road games, the Pirates 22-5 int heir last 27 as a favorite and 25-10 following a loss.
 

Where to find Freddy?