Both of these lines are coming down to our advantage and I'm thinking we have great value.
The Twins will look to win 4 straight and continue their dominance over the Royals who are 7-20 in their last 27 @ Twins. Minnesota is also 41-19 in the last 60 meetings and will start their ace Scott Diamond who is extremely hard to score on because he never walks guys and gets a ton of ground balls. Diamond does not strike a lot of guys out but a 1.45 BB/9 and 56% ground ball ratio will keep you from giving up a lot of runs. There are a few guys that the Royals have faced like him. When you look at Tommy Milone he's up there in terms of BB/9 and Milone combined for 15 IP giving up just 2 ER to the Royals. More notably is Rick Porcello who is a righty and is closer to Diamond's stats. Porcello pitched 13 IP gave up 5 ER. But Diamond is a lefty and the Royals were not nearly as good vs. lefties this year ranking 20th in OPS and are only scoring 3.95 runs per 9 on the road while the Twins are scoring 5.40 runs per 9 at home vs. LHP.
They get Will Smith who if you ask me shouldn't be pitching. IN two starts vs. the Twins he's struggled giving up 17 hits and 10 ER along with 4BB's in 10.2 IP for an 8.44 ERA. The Twins have an OPS over 1.000 against Smith who hasn't started since September 1st. Smith carries a 4.97 ERA on the road with a 1.47 WHIP. He is nothing special looking at his stats with less than 6 K/9, over 3BB/9 AND A 43.7% GB rate with 13% HR/FB. The closest match is Jason Vargas and Ubaldo Jimenez who both struggled in Minnesota this year each gave up more than 5 ER. The Twins have been giving us good value for a long time now and I'll continue to back them especially with Diamond on the mound. It also doesn't hurt that he's getting 7.5 runs of support during his starts this year, the best in the majors!
This team has been struggling, but this is the game they come out of it. They should have runners on base all game long with Edinson Volquez's inability to throw strikes. They have good numbers in 79 AB they have a 1.006 OPS with a .436 OBP vs. Volquez. Meanwhile we get great value because of Wainwright's struggles too, but against the Padres he's dominated in 64 AB the line up has .462 OPS against and Wainwright in 4 career starts posts a 3-1 record and a 0.58 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP. The Padres have been scoring runs, but they haven't faced a dominating RHP in a while. Actually since Matt Cain back on August 17th when they lost 1-10. This team struggles more vs. RHP than lefties especially at home so expect the Cardinals to dominate tonight!
